Risk Ranking of Oil and Gas Projects in the Exploitation Phase: An OPA-Based Case Study of the National Iranian Oil Company

Authors

  • Mehdi Abbasi * Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9357-0699
  • Soroush Kaviani Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran.
  • Leila Sheikhian Department of Chemistry, Kazerun Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kazerun, Iran. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7297-4109

https://doi.org/10.48314/ijorai.v1i3.72

Abstract

This study addresses the systematic process of risk management throughout the life cycle of oil and gas projects, emphasizing the need to identify, evaluate, and control risks to safeguard national assets. Given the sector’s high exposure to operational, financial, and environmental uncertainties, the research applies the Ordinal Priority Approach (OPA) to assess the relative importance of risk factors in the exploitation phase. The methodology unfolds in four stages: establishing an expert panel, identifying relevant sub-criteria through literature and expert judgment, ranking experts based on their professional expertise, and eliciting individual prioritizations of risk factors. Subsequently, a linear programming model was solved using the official OPA platform to derive optimal weights for both experts and criteria, ensuring consistency and analytical reliability in the ranking process. The findings indicate that cost and time constitute the most influential dimensions shaping project success, followed by human resources, procurement, quality, miscellaneous factors, and scope. The analysis further identifies three paramount risks: insufficient infrastructure in exploration areas, shortage of skilled professionals due to regional constraints, and oil extraction from shared reservoirs by neighboring states. Overall, the results underscore the importance of proactive and data-driven risk management strategies, integrating expert judgment and analytical rigor to strengthen decision-making, minimize potential disruptions, and promote sustainable performance across the oil and gas industry.

Keywords:

Risk management, Oil and gas projects , Exploration phase, Ordinal priority approach, Risk prioritization

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Published

2025-09-12

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 3 (2025): International Journal of Operations Research and Artificial Intelligence (IJORAI)

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Abbasi, M. ., Kaviani, S. ., & Sheikhian, L. . (2025). Risk Ranking of Oil and Gas Projects in the Exploitation Phase: An OPA-Based Case Study of the National Iranian Oil Company. International Journal of Operations Research and Artificial Intelligence , 1(3), 121-130. https://doi.org/10.48314/ijorai.v1i3.72

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