Strategic Evaluation of Ethylene Projects under Uncertainty Using an Integrated AHP–TOPSIS Model

Authors

https://doi.org/10.48314/ijorai.v1i3.75

Abstract

The petrochemical industry plays a significant role in Iran’s economy, contributing to added value and supporting the development of downstream industries. Among its key products, ethylene—recognized as a fundamental building block in the petrochemical value chain—plays a crucial role in industrial policymaking and investment planning. Since implementing ethylene production projects requires substantial financial and human resources and is associated with various technical, economic, and environmental challenges, the need for scientific tools to prioritize these projects has become increasingly important. This study aims to prioritize ethylene production projects and units in Iran using the integrated multi-criteria decision-making model Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)–Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). First, evaluation criteria—including economic, technical, environmental, geographical, and managerial indicators—were identified and weighted based on expert opinions. The performance of production units was then compared and ranked using the TOPSIS method. The results indicated that Unit D, with a score of 0.98 in the AHP method and the highest closeness coefficient to the ideal solution in the TOPSIS method, is the most suitable option for investment and future development in the petrochemical industry. Sensitivity analysis further revealed that Unit D's ranking remained stable across most scenarios. Overall, the findings highlight the decisive role of advanced technologies and environmental requirements, alongside economic factors, demonstrating that multi-criteria models can serve as powerful tools for strategic decision-making in Iran’s petrochemical sector.

Keywords:

Petrochemical projects, Ethylene, Multi-attribute decision making, Analytical hierarchy process–technique for order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution

References

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Published

2025-09-25

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 3 (2025): International Journal of Operations Research and Artificial Intelligence (IJORAI)

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Ahmadi, M. . (2025). Strategic Evaluation of Ethylene Projects under Uncertainty Using an Integrated AHP–TOPSIS Model. International Journal of Operations Research and Artificial Intelligence , 1(3), 166-174. https://doi.org/10.48314/ijorai.v1i3.75

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